A Failed State, Not a Bankrupt One

There is nothing more symbolic about Lebanon than its predicament in the energy industry.

The country possesses great amounts of estimated offshore reserves of natural gas.

It will not be the savior-for-all, but by 2028, Lebanon could start generating an estimated $1.5-2bn in revenues per year to the state’s coffers.

The government’s lack of responsibility and sovereignty means Lebanon is behind in development and unable to protect its exclusive economic zone.

An agreement with Cyprus in 2007 was never ratified by Lebanese Parliament, following which Cyprus agreed on a deal to demarcate its border with Israel without consulting Lebanon, costing Lebanon a third of potential size.

Last month, Syria began exploring in a 750km2 offshore surface supposed to be part of Lebanon’s exclusive economic zone.

The Shebaa Farms was not dealt with properly in 2000, while in 2007, Lebanon chose to engage in bilateral resolution with Syria, instead of pursuing international mediation offered by UN resolution 1680.

On the southern side, Israel has already began producing, signed two gas contracts with Jordan and Egypt, and is leading the development of the EastMed Pipeline connecting to Europe.

Disputes over the beginning of the southern maritime border have been mediated through the US. The establishment of the “Hof Line” has sought to mediate differences between different line demarcations, with Israel using a small rocky island as starting point. There will likely be some form of compromise between both sides, with a final line drawn somewhere between lines 23 and 29.

Politicians have been eager to position themselves to benefit from these future windfalls, having created shell companies rumored to be connected to entities from Bermuda to Hong Kong.

On the other side, lawyers working for the revolution are currently pushing for laws that guarantee the rights to the income from these resources are placed in the hands of an accountable sovereign wealth fund.

Should they succeed, Lebanon will get to reduce part of the $80bn+ gap in banking losses and help alleviate a bit the financial burden on future generations.

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