Tribes are the oldest human organization structure known and seem to be the default type.

Since early days as hunter-gatherers, humans formed bonds with one another, creating groups of tribes that shared communal norms and rules.

Over time, as agricultural and trade settlements occurred, tribes united to form larger collective groups, bringing into existence cities, nations, and states.

Tribes preserved their customs and/or integrated into larger collectives. Cultural exchanges, urbanization led to the homogenization of tribes, while many state-led initiatives also promoted cultural convergence.

Today, tribalism continues to manifest itself. It displays strong in-group association, and large perceived out-group differences.

During crises, humans tend to fall back on the smaller social group that most resembles them. The lowest common denominator can come in the form of sectarian, ethnic, geographic, racial, linguistic, class or ideological divisions.

In times of greater prosperity, humans find it easier to move away from tribal instincts, reaching out to larger collective groups such as nations.

Without strong state administration or greater cultural homogeneity, and fighting to survive through various crises, tribal social frameworks and behaviors have remained dominant in Lebanon.

While being stuck in survival mode leads people to rely on tribal instincts (check Inglehart-Welzel model in second picture), in certain conditions, they can also lead humans to greater self-reflection and awakening, which began happening after October 17.

Which of these two opposing forces dominates the other will dictate whether Lebanon will emerge more or less tribal out of the crisis.

Clientelism, fear of the other, tit-for-tats, and victimization narratives tilt the balance in one way. Intergroup discussion and cultural openness will tilt the balance in the other way.

Until the elections, it is hard to estimate the percentage of Lebanese who display strong tribal affiliations. Until today, the coalition of those with secular national identities has not been able to tilt the balance and challenge the tribal sociopolitical order.